礼来CEO驳斥阿莫迪荒谬医疗言论

Breaking: Eli Lilly CEO becomes latest to push back on Dario Amodei’s ludicrous, Elizabeth Holmes-like medical claims

Where is Nathan Fielder when you need him?

Gary Marcus

Nov 12, 2026

Moments after I posted my essay on why I couldn’t touch Anthropic’s IPO with a ten-foot pole, Anthropic’s CEO gave me (and everyone else) a reason to run away as fast as possible: a video tied to the IPO launch in which he made a bunch of overpromise about medicine that would have made Elizabeth Holmes blush.

NIK@ns123abc

Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years

ACCELERATE

7:12 PM · Nov 10, 2026 · 2.45M Views

1.29K Replies · 1.06K Reposts · 13.3K Likes

As I have discussed before, this is not going to happen on anything remotely like that timeline. Cancer is more than one thing, and it will take more than a decade to eradicate it; the bit about curing mental illness (and some other things) that quickly is absolute fantasy.

The response from experts on X has been swift, and absolutely (and appropriately) brutal.

I was hardly the only one to get serious Elizabeth Holmes vibes. Here are four of my favorites:

Geoff Shullenberger@g_shullenberger

If you can’t see at least some parallels with Elizabeth Holmes here I don’t know what to tell you…

NIK @ns123abc

Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years

ACCELERATE

2:48 PM · Nov 11, 2026 · 123K Views

202 Replies · 897 Reposts · 8.88K Likes

Dr. Angela Rasmussen@angie_rasmussen

We can test for every disease on earth with a single drop of blood

NIK @ns123abc

Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years

ACCELERATE

9:42 PM · Nov 11, 2026 · 265K Views

104 Replies · 616 Reposts · 16.2K Likes

Alheli Picazo@a_picazo

That's not how mental illness works, and frankly, the more fantastical promises/predictions these CEOs make, the stronger the case against trusting them or their product becomes.

Big Elizabeth Holmes/Theranos vibes.

John Cassidy @JohnCassidy

In other news, AI will cure mental illness within a decade.

5:05 AM · Nov 11, 2026 · 7.57K Views

29 Replies · 47 Reposts · 300 Likes

Charlotte Alter@CharlotteAlter

Genuine Q: How is Amodei saying AI can cure cancer, Alzheimers, heart disease meaningfully different than Elizabeth Holmes saying Theranos "can" test blood?

Both are using "can" to mean: it may one day be possible. But she's a fraud and he's not?

NIK @ns123abc

Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years

ACCELERATE

5:17 PM · Nov 11, 2026 · 7.73K Views

38 Replies · 18 Reposts · 177 Likes

The fact is, the field is in no position to do what Dario says, on anything like the timeline that he discusses.

On the one hand, we don’t have the data:

@DarioAmodei. The data exists for <1% of biology. Likely AI will help get a few better drugs slightly faster &amp; more efficiently in that time frame but honestly, especially with 5-8 years needed in the clinic, what you are saying is hyperbolic BS!","username":"drrichjlaw","name":"Rich Law","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1900110328446304256/6K3koO_e_normal.jpg","date":"2026-11-11T15:25:56.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years \n\nACCELERATE","username":"ns123abc","name":"NIK","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2048822563821035520/7nxCFEnk_normal.jpg","photos":[]},"reply_count":74,"retweet_count":51,"like_count":517,"impression_count":33456,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}">

Rich Law@drrichjlaw

Stop it @DarioAmodei. The data exists for <1% of biology. Likely AI will help get a few better drugs slightly faster & more efficiently in that time frame but honestly, especially with 5-8 years needed in the clinic, what you are saying is hyperbolic BS!

NIK @ns123abc

Anthropic CEO predicts cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness will be cured in less than 10 years

ACCELERATE

3:25 PM · Nov 11, 2026 · 33.5K Views

74 Replies · 51 Reposts · 517 Likes

What Dario said about timelines just ain’t happening.

@megtirrell @DarioAmodei For the most recent 20 drugs approved, the mean time from 1st in human to fda approval was 14yrs. The median was 10. So unless these miracles drugs are are already in clinical testing or are very close to it, then the answer is a definite no. I do think there is a shot for ai…","username":"masterlongevity","name":"masterlongevity.","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1484975789502185474/rwdsC-DR_normal.jpg","date":"2026-11-11T21:38:58.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"like_count":6,"impression_count":507,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}">

masterlongevity.@masterlongevity

@megtirrell @DarioAmodei For the most recent 20 drugs approved, the mean time from 1st in human to fda approval was 14yrs. The median was 10. So unless these miracles drugs are are already in clinical testing or are very close to it, then the answer is a definite no. I do think there is a shot for ai…

9:38 PM · Nov 11, 2026 · 507 Views

2 Reposts · 6 Likes

As several researchers noted, we simply can’t expedite clinical trials — which are absolutely necessary — to the degree that would be required:

@megtirrell @DarioAmodei can someone send dario a drug dev gantt chart? ;) ...and just for context, i'm an AI bull, believe timelines will get a lot shorter, but we still have a process that has steps u aren't allowed to skip (like mouse experiments, manufacturing, fda interactions, and clinical","username":"docrodwong","name":"Rod Wong, MD","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1900281177564409856/ihcFI6-d_normal.jpg","date":"2026-11-11T22:16:20.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"like_count":21,"impression_count":1261,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}">

Rod Wong, MD@docrodwong

@megtirrell @DarioAmodei can someone send dario a drug dev gantt chart? ;) ...and just for context, i'm an AI bull, believe timelines will get a lot shorter, but we still have a process that has steps u aren't allowed to skip (like mouse experiments, manufacturing, fda interactions, and clinical

10:16 PM · Nov 11, 2026 · 1.26K Views

3 Replies · 1 Repost · 21 Likes

@megtirrell @DarioAmodei CEO of a precision oncology company here. Cured in under a decade? Clinical timelines alone make that very hard: a drug entering trials today reaches patients in the 2030s.\n\nWhat I do think is realistic: turning advanced cancer into a chronic disease people live with, like HIV.…","username":"KirchukNicolas","name":"Nicolas Kirchuk","profile_image_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2013082197385695232/xuLFqYYL_normal.jpg","date":"2026-11-12T01:41:40.000Z","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"like_count":3,"impression_count":178,"expanded_url":null,"video_url":null,"video_preview_media_key":null,"belowTheFold":true}">

Nicolas Kirchuk@KirchukNicolas

@megtirrell @DarioAmodei CEO of a precision oncology company here. Cured in under a decade? Clinical timelines alone make that very hard: a drug entering trials today reaches patients in the 2030s.

What I do think is realistic: turning advanced cancer into a chronic disease people live with, like HIV.…

1:41 AM · Nov 12, 2026 · 178 Views

3 Likes

Practically anyone who works in the field knows what Dario said is bullsh