菲利普·兰恩：货币政策沟通的科学与实践：欧央行经验

The science and practice of monetary policy communication: the ECB experience

Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference

London, 10 November 2026

Monetary policy is about more than just the latest interest rate decision. It also involves communication about future economic developments and the factors shaping future policy decisions.[1] By steering the expectations of financial market participants, central bank communication shapes the full set of financial market prices across the maturity and risk spectrums, in turn affecting financing conditions and decisions around credit, saving and investment. The decisions of households and firms are also affected by their beliefs about monetary policy, which depend on how the central bank communicates.[2]

I will divide this speech into two parts. In the first part, I will review recent contributions by ECB staff on the science of monetary policy communication.[3] In the second part, I will discuss the practice of monetary policy communication from an ECB perspective.

The science of monetary policy communication

Greater data availability, increased computing power and artificial intelligence have substantially expanded the tools available for analysing central bank communication. Until recently, researchers relied on dictionary-based approaches to quantify the content and tone of monetary policy statements and speeches. This involved categorising specific words and expressions associated with a restrictive or accommodative stance, or with different assessments of inflation and the economic outlook.[4] Machine learning techniques and large language models (LLMs) now allow for the extensive analysis of large volumes of text in a more automated manner, taking into account the context in which words are used instead of relying solely on the frequency of individual words or predefined expressions.[5]

Recent ECB research illustrates these possibilities. A set of novel, LLM-based in-house measures of the tone of ECB monetary policy communication confirms that it becomes more hawkish during tightening phases and more dovish during easing periods. These shifts in communication closely track developments in the deposit facility rate (Chart 1, panel a).[6] The importance of communication is also illustrated by the research finding that information extracted from ECB monetary policy statements can improve forecasts of euro area core inflation several quarters ahead, even when controlling for the contributions of Eurosystem and ECB staff projections.[7]

These indicators can also be employed to test whether central bank communication follows systematic patterns that reflect the economic outlook and the policy stance. Indeed, the evidence suggests that central banks tend to communicate in a systematic manner, following “communication rules”.[8] By estimating a systematic relationship between the tone of communication on monetary policy, economic activity and inflation, ECB staff find that, in line with our primary objective of price stability, ECB communication on monetary policy systematically places more emphasis on inflation developments (Chart 1, panel b).

These new tools therefore provide valuable insights into aspects of communication that conventional financial market indicators may not fully capture. At the same time, their use requires careful validation, since the results depend on how questions are formulated and what data are used for training.[9]

Chart 1

Evolution of ECB communication tone and “Taylor-type” communication rule weights

Financial markets

Financial market participants closely follow central bank communication because it provides information about both the economic and inflation outlook and the expected path of monetary policy. Both of these dimensions are relevant for asset pricing and investment decisions.

Central bank communication can influence interest rate expectations and financial conditions, independently from actual policy changes.[10] Research shows that financial analysts reassess the monetary policy stance following ECB Governing Council announcements, considering both the policy decision and the accompanying communication. Unexpected revisions in their assessment contain information beyond conventional market-based monetary policy surprises and are associated with significant effects on economic and financial conditions. For instance, even when an interest rate decision is widely anticipated and generates little immediate market reaction, the accompanying communication may lead market analysts to reassess how restrictive is monetary policy or how it is likely to evolve.[11]

Chart 2

Communication moves financial markets

The importance of communication extends beyond Governing Council meetings. Research examining thousands of speeches, interviews, hearings and other events shows that communication in the time period between meetings can affect market interest rates across maturities. It can help markets anticipate policy changes, particularly ahead of tightening episodes, and its cumulative effect over time can be comparable to that of policy announcements, especially at longer maturities (Chart 2).[12]

Beyond shaping expectations about the future path of policy rates, communication also affects financial conditions more broadly. The tone of ECB communication can influence monetary policy uncertainty and premia on risky assets.[13] In particular, financial markets respond to several dimensions of monetary policy news: the current policy rate, the expected path of rates, and market and sovereign risk (“target”, “path”, and “risk” in Chart 3, respectively).

Chart 3

Monetary policy news from selected ECB Governing Council meetings

Households and firms

Communicating with households and firms presents different challenges to communicating with markets. Unlike professional market participants, most households do not closely follow central bank communication. And even when they do encounter central bank messages, they may interpret their implications differently to market analysts. Research presented in our 2021 monetary policy strategy review suggests that information about the new inflation target reached only around one in ten consumers in the months following its announcement. Most learned about the new inflation target through television, radio and newspapers rather than directly from the ECB (Chart 4).[14]

Chart 4

How ECB communication reaches households

Reaching households, however, is just one part of the process. Attention to inflation varies with the economic environment. When inflation is high, households and firms tend to pay more attention, while they pay less attention when inflation is low and stable (Chart 5).[15] This matters for the transmission of monetary policy. What households and firms believe about future inflation, and how confident they are that the central bank will deliver price stability, shapes how they set wages and prices and how they adjust their spending and saving when we change interest rates.[16]

When inflation is high, households tend to be more attentive, but they may also be less responsive to information they already know. This underscores the importance of tailoring communication to the economic environment to ensure that messages reach households when inflation is low while providing clear, relevant and informative explanations when inflation becomes more salient.[17]

Households typically interpret monetary policy in terms of how it directly affects their economic circumstances. Euro area consumers tend to associate monetary policy primarily with borrowing costs rather than directly with inflation. Those who emphasise the borrowing-cost channel may also respond more strongly to a rate rise in their planned spending decisions.[18]

The expectations of firms are also important for monetary policy transmission. Their views about future inflation