欧洲央行工资追踪器预测2027年前三季度工资增长略有上升

· PRESS RELEASE

ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026

4 November 2026

· ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to

middle of October 2026; forward-looking horizon extended to end of September 2027

· Headline ECB wage tracker at 2.7% in second half of 2026 and 2.8% in first half of 2027; it will decline to

2.4% in third quarter of 2027 based on still-limited employee coverage

· ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments increased from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.8% for first three quarters of

The European Central Bank (ECB) headline wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements with one-off payments smoothed over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.2% of employees in participating countries). The tracker stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 (based on a coverage of 45.6%) and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 (based on a coverage of 31.8%), and declines to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027 (based on a still relatively low coverage of 23.3%). The relatively low ECB wage tracker in the first half of 2026 still reflects the downward mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in the following year. These effects dissipate fully in the second half of 2026.

Compared with the September 2026 data release, the headline wage tracker was revised upwards slightly for the second half of 2026 and for the first half of 2027, by around 0.1 percentage points on average.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments stands at 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027, down from 2.7% for the first half of 2027 and for 2026 as a whole. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments moderates to 2.5% for the third quarter of 2027 from 2.9% for the first half of 2027 and stands at 2.6% on average for 2026, continuing to indicate a limited scope for one-off payments in recently signed collective bargaining agreements. Excluding one-offs, the ECB wage tracker averages 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, indicating a slightly higher permanent negotiated wage growth than registered for the full year of 2026.

The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages as it smooths one-off payments over time. By contrast, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics in negotiated wages.

The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker has been extended up to the end of September 2027. As new agreements are signed and coverage of contracts reaching 2027 gradually increases, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be further extended to the full year of 2027 in the December 2026 data release.

Employee coverage for 2026 stands at 46.2% but decreases significantly to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and to 23.3% in the third quarter of 2027. The employee coverage is still limited for the third quarter of 2027 and will steadily increase over time as more wage agreements are signed. The employee coverage for 2026 and the first half of 2027 is broadly similar to that recorded at the same time last year, as indicated in the November 2025 data release. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.

Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revision, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information that is currently available for active collective bargaining agreements. Moreover, the ECB wage tracker does not perfectly track the indicator of negotiated wage growth, which is aggregated for the euro area based on country-level data on negotiated wage growth calculated by national sources (see Chart 1, left panel). Therefore, deviations from the indicator of negotiated wage growth are to be expected over time.

For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the September 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee of 3.3% in 2026.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal. The data release following the December 2026 meeting of the ECB Governing Council will exceptionally be published on 18 December 2026.

Chart 1

ECB wage tracker: forward-looking signals and revisions to the previous data release

What do the four different indicators show?

· The headline ECB wage tracker is a tracker of negotiated wage growth that includes

collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back-dated pay, which are smoothed over 12 months.

· The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or

permanent) negotiated wage increases.

· The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology

that, in terms of both data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not necessarily the same as, that used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth.

· The share of employees covered is the percentage of employees across the participating

countries that are directly covered by ECB wage tracker data. This indicator provides information on the representativeness of the underlying (negotiated) wage growth signals obtained from the set of wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the participating countries. Employee coverage differs across countries and within each country over time (more details can be found in Table 2).

Table 1

ECB wage tracker summary