传音控股面临内存通胀：囤货、冷门H股与AI豪赌

NextFin News — Transsion Holdings made its name as the dominant phone brand across much of Africa and a wider set of emerging markets—a rare Chinese consumer-electronics success built almost entirely overseas. Revenue and profit peaked in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, a fierce cycle of memory-price inflation cut net profit roughly in half.Stockpiling chips and lifting selling prices produced a rebound in the first half of 2026 on an easy comparison; the third quarter lost speed again. With phone memory sometimes costing more than the main processor, the company is pushing on-device AI in search of pricing power. Its Hong Kong listing, completed in mid-October, has traded thinly and at a steep discount to the Shanghai shares—hardly a vote of confidence in that next chapter.Third-quarter results released on October 30 showed the first-half repair narrative fading. The Hong Kong line (HK2636) has mostly sat near its issue price, with light volume, low turnover, and almost a 50% discount to the A-share—an awkward outcome after a long march to an A+H structure.How a low-cost export champion was builtTranssion is an outlier among Chinese phone brands. Headquartered in Shenzhen, it designs and builds largely in China but sells far from home. The founding team came out of Bird; controlling shareholder Zhu Zhaojiang had run that firm’s international business before leaving in 2006 to bet on Africa, where penetration was low, global brands were thinly engaged, and price mattered more than prestige.The playbook scaled: practical features such as multi-SIM support, long battery life, and camera tuning for darker skin tones; three brands—itel, TECNO, and Infinix—covering entry to mid-tier; and a distribution web of more than 2,900 dealers from national partners down to small towns. Africa became a home market; similar tactics spread through South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. By its 2019 Shanghai STAR listing it was already called Africa’s phone king. IDC has since ranked it among the world’s top three shippers; its African volume share once exceeded 60% in third-party data.2023 brought a profit surge; 2024 brought record revenue near 69 billion yuan, with net profit barely growing and underlying profit down—signs that pure volume was approaching a ceiling. Then the supply shock hit.When AI reordered the memory marketFrom early 2025, DRAM and NAND prices climbed as producers steered capacity toward high-bandwidth memory and server products for AI data centers, tightening supply of the parts phones actually use. Research houses estimate memory now accounts for roughly 40–50% of the bill of materials in low-end smartphones—and more than 60% in sub-$100 devices—up from the low teens in calmer years.Cost flows downhill. Wafer makers and module houses can reprice fastest; brands aimed at highly price-sensitive buyers cannot. Transsion’s mix sits mostly under $150, with 2025 smartphone average selling prices around 566 yuan (about $80). That positioning left it exposed. Full-year 2025 revenue slipped about 5% to roughly 66 billion yuan; net profit fell about 53% to 2.58 billion yuan; gross margin hit a listed low near 19%; the share price dropped more than 40% from its late-2025 peak within months. Investors later pressed management over communication during the crisis and over high-level share sales; answers stayed formulaic.Past storms—currency stress, the shift from feature phones, pandemic shortages—had been manageable with flexible sourcing. This one, analysts argue, is harder to fix with ordinary pricing and channel tweaks alone.Stockpile, raise prices, climb the mixFrom late 2025, Transsion built inventory aggressively: from about 8.9 billion yuan at year-end to 14.2 billion by March and 18.9 billion by June 2026. Management said materials were roughly half of that stock, mostly memory. It has tried to buy closer to the source—negotiating die with producers, then paying module firms to assemble—so it is not always purchasing fully priced packages. Under moving-average costing, expensive new lots blend with cheaper ones, so reported costs rise with a lag. Cash does not wait: operating cash flow ran about −5.9 billion yuan in the first half and −9.9 billion for the first nine months.Purchase prices still floated with the market. Average memory procurement cost jumped from roughly 50 yuan in 2023 to about 70 yuan in 2025 and 192 yuan in the first four months of 2026. Memory became the largest single cost in goods sold, ahead of processors and displays. Small stakes and cornerstone orders in related suppliers were meant to keep Transsion near the front of the line.In the time that buffer bought, the company raised prices with each quarterly wave of new models and cut back on the cheapest devices. Units priced above $150—its internal mid-to-high tier—rose to about 16–17% of sales in the first half, from single digits before. Smartphone shipments fell about 11%, while average selling price rose about 30%.A rebound that did not lastFirst-half 2026 looked strong against a weak base: revenue up 22%, net profit up 46%, gross margin above 22%. Compared with 2024, revenue had only edged up and profits remained far lower. The third quarter erased much of the growth: revenue down more than a quarter year on year; nine-month revenue barely higher than a year earlier. Headline net profit held up better than core profit, which fell sharply; non-operating gains accounted for a large share of the attributable figure. The company drew down cash and financial assets and increased short-term borrowing while still spending heavily on goods. By September, inventory had been trimmed slightly from midyear but remained far above end-2025 levels. Management said it would stockpile more selectively as the pace of memory price increases slowed.The AI story meets a skeptical marketMoving upmarket pulls Transsion out of the low-cost, high-density channel game it knows best and into a tier where Samsung, Xiaomi, Honor, and others are stronger on brand, technology, and financing offers. The risk is losing volume at the bottom without securing the rung above.The narrative to investors has centered on on-device AI: a large slice of Hong Kong IPO proceeds for AI research; compact models meant to run on mid- and low-tier chips; local-language speech and practical camera and call features; tighter ties between hardware and Transsion’s own software platform; and adjacency into accessories, appliances, and energy storage—set against a mobile-internet base of nearly 300 million monthly users. Pre-IPO meetings were crowded. Demand for the deal was not. The offer priced at the bottom of the range, relied heavily on cornerstone investors—including supply-chain partners—and opened below issue. Trading has stayed quiet, with a wide discount to the A-share.That gap captures the doubt: localized AI may improve the product, but it is unproven as a fix for a profit model still tied to handsets stuck in the worst part of the memory cost curve. Transsion still has distribution reach, local product sense, and scale at low price points. Those advantages are under pressure from component inflation and tougher rivals. Raise prices further and demand may crack; strip specifications and the product weakens. AI is no longer a side project—it is the wager on whether the company can grow beyond pure volume. For now, memory inflation is still setting the tempo.*(This article was first published on the TMTPost App. Series: Capital Profile. Author: Wen Yidao.)*更多精彩内容，关注钛媒体微信号（ID：taimeiti），或者下载钛媒体App