中国电影业遇冷与合成电影兴起

NextFin News — Chinese cinema chains are fighting a demand problem, not a shortage of novelty. Holiday windows that once reliably packed auditoriums have been posting soft totals through 2026. The May long weekend and the early-October National Day period both landed well below recent peaks, with admissions in one major holiday stretch down by more than a third from a year earlier. Exhibitors describe a market that keeps finding a lower floor.That is a harsh stage for an experiment. When Bona put *Sanxingdui: Future Past* into commercial theaters—backed as a fully AI-produced feature and sold with the language of a technological first—the financing conversation was louder than the turnout. Tracking services recorded a negligible preview, an opening day measured in the low hundreds of thousands of yuan, and a cumulative gross still near one million yuan after several days on screen. Forecasts remained in the low single-digit millions. The film’s real achievement was procedural: it completed the chain from project filing through review, booking, and public exhibition. Paying crowds did not follow.The production was not a casual prompt dump. Accounts of the process describe long technical development, vast volumes of generated stills, repeated full-film revisions, and a large team organized much like a conventional unit, because holding a character’s face and mood steady across cuts still required constant human repair. On a phone, uneven motion can pass as background noise. In a dark hall, the same faults read as stiffness, sudden emotion, geography that jumps, and details that break trust.Some viewers still praised isolated images. That split is useful intelligence, not a marketing win. It suggests AI features may find a niche among people curious about the method, while a mass audience continues to judge by performance, continuity, and story—the same bar live-action product fails or clears. Studios have not paused. Midyear disclosures and slate announcements from several film groups point to more AI long-form work, including animation-led projects and plans that mix series with a possible theatrical track. Supply will expand faster than consensus taste.China’s film business still leans hard on ticket sales. Average prices have sat in a relatively high band in recent years. An AI title can, in principle, be made for a fraction of a heavy live-action budget; the cinema’s rent, labor, and energy do not shrink with the visual-effects line item. Early AI bookings reportedly discounted tickets below typical live-action levels and still failed to draw volume. Viewers flooded with free generative clips online have little reason to treat “made by AI” as a premium event.If more such titles seek screen time, the split between producer and exhibitor becomes a live negotiation. Lower production cost expands studio upside under old formulas; theaters shoulder unchanged fixed costs. Without adjustment, chains have weak incentive to clear prime slots for experiments that empty out after the first curious weekend.Synthetic cinema is arriving after a demographic shift, not before it. Industry studies show the share of very young ticket buyers has fallen sharply since the late 2010s, while older cohorts account for more of the remaining audience. Weekends now compete with concerts, offline games, short video, and micro-drama. Going to the movies alone is more common. AI changes the factory that produces images. It does not automatically restore the social habit that once filled multiplexes on Saturday night—and for imperfect early AI work, the living-room screen remains the lower-risk place to look.The first AI feature on China’s commercial circuit answered whether the system would allow it. The harder questions are whether quality can sustain two hours, whether anyone will pay cinema prices for the label, and whether theaters already short of must-see titles should bet scarce screens on a format still learning basic continuity. Until those answers improve, AI film is a pipeline story. It is not a rescue plan for the box office. 更多精彩内容，关注钛媒体微信号（ID：taimeiti），或者下载钛媒体App